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South Africa under the old aparteid regime was current when I took political science in college, in the 80s, and none of us would have been surprised if it collapsed in violence. (And if Nelson Mandela had died in prison, I suspect that it *would* have done exactly that.)
Oh yes, I think this book was very realistic in that aspect. A couple of reviewers have described it as "what might have happened to South Africa without Mandela," though he's mentioned at one point so I'm not sure exactly where Gordimer envisioned events differing from what actually occurred.
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