The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them.... show more
A black swan is an event, positive or negative, that is deemed improbable yet causes massive consequences. In this groundbreaking and prophetic book, Taleb shows in a playful way that Black Swan events explain almost everything about our world, and yet we—especially the experts—are blind to them. In this second edition, Taleb has added a new essay, On Robustness and Fragility, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Publish date: May 11th 2010
Publisher: Random House Trade Paperbacks
Pages no: 400
Edition language: English
I don't know if I was just not in the mood for this or what, but writing this over a week after reading it (and reading more in between) does not help me write a review. I took this from the summary: "A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictab...
bookshelves: abandoned, nonfiction Read in November, 2007 A brash and at times almost hysterical tirade against those who take no account of, or leave no room for, improbabilities in their forecasting. This Levantine says that we are being lied to every time someone puts before us a prediction t...
Nassim Nicholas Taleb boasts about showing up at an international think tank on the theory of prediction with his speech written on “five restaurant napkins, some stained”. Half a paragraph later he stresses the importance of being humble and not overestimating our confidence in any acquired knowled...
I have been duped. This writer is a jerk and I don't think I could trust what he said anymore. (updated on 5 Jan 2016) I bought this in 2009, that's 4 years ago, and it has been sitting on the shelf, waiting for me read it. Well, I finally did. It is a good book. Another thinking person book, lik...
The author says he's a mathematician philosopher trader and if you tend towards that mode of thinking as I do this book will forever change your world view.The book was written a year before the financial crisis of 2008 and really predicts that kind of event completely. His bottom line is that most ...