Lots of advice, but it is focused on lackluster/tepid expectations. It seems 2015’s negative surprises and poor performance set the tone for 2016’s outlooks. Even articles that include “bull market” in their titles restate what went wrong and end up asking the question of whether stocks can rise again. The only certainties offered are that the U.S. stock market will be volatile and that it will not generate a double-digit return in 2016. A good example is the AP article, “Expect less and buy antacid: 2016 investment forecasts.”

Investing is becoming more of a grind. Expect it to stay that way.

Analysts, mutual-fund managers and other forecasters are telling investors to expect lower returns from stocks and bonds in 2016 than in past years. They’re also predicting more severe swings in prices. Remember that 10 percent drop for stocks that freaked investors out in August? It likely won’t take another four years for the next one.

That brings us to what is missing from most advice: Optimism and “cool” stocks. When attitudes and advice center in one area, taking a contrarian stance by focusing on overlooked or dismissed areas can often reward investors with lower risk and/or higher returns.

Disclosure: Author is fully invested in U.S. stocks and actively managed U.S. stock funds. Holdings include the five stocks mentioned below.

Contrarian investing using optimism

Contrarian investing is often linked to troubled, deeply discounted stocks. However, “contrarian” simply means going against a popular trend. Thus, selling a popular investment or buying stocks that others are ignoring are also examples of contrarian investing.

So, what is so special about adopting an optimistic attitude? Because it means having confidence in the future, and that shifts the investing strategy to future growth. Are the uncertainties and reversals revealed last year still at work? Of course. However, everybody knows about them, so today’s stock prices fully reflect that information. What is not yet included in the pricing is the expectation that today’s problems will be corrected by tomorrow’s actions. Instead, the 2016 advice says or implies that, because the solutions are not currently visible, we should not count on them occurring. This “wait until the dust settles” procrastination is the surest way of missing out on the largest, safest returns from stock investing. When the good news is obvious, prices are already up.

Lots of advice, but it is focused on lackluster/tepid expectations. It seems 2015’s negative surprises and poor performance set the tone for 2016’s outlooks. Even articles that include “bull market” in their titles restate what went wrong and end up asking the question of whether stocks can rise again. The only certainties offered are that the U.S. stock market will be volatile and that it will not generate a double-digit return in 2016. A good example is the AP article, “Expect less and buy antacid: 2016 investment forecasts.”

Investing is becoming more of a grind. Expect it to stay that way.

Analysts, mutual-fund managers and other forecasters are telling investors to expect lower returns from stocks and bonds in 2016 than in past years. They’re also predicting more severe swings in prices. Remember that 10 percent drop for stocks that freaked investors out in August? It likely won’t take another four years for the next one.

That brings us to what is missing from most advice: Optimism and “cool” stocks. When attitudes and advice center in one area, taking a contrarian stance by focusing on overlooked or dismissed areas can often reward investors with lower risk and/or higher returns.

Disclosure: Author is fully invested in U.S. stocks and actively managed U.S. stock funds. Holdings include the five stocks mentioned below.

Contrarian investing using optimism

Contrarian investing is often linked to troubled, deeply discounted stocks. However, “contrarian” simply means going against a popular trend. Thus, selling a popular investment or buying stocks that others are ignoring are also examples of contrarian investing.

So, what is so special about adopting an optimistic attitude? Because it means having confidence in the future, and that shifts the investing strategy to future growth. Are the uncertainties and reversals revealed last year still at work? Of course. However, everybody knows about them, so today’s stock prices fully reflect that information. What is not yet included in the pricing is the expectation that today’s problems will be corrected by tomorrow’s actions. Instead, the 2016 advice says or implies that, because the solutions are not currently visible, we should not count on them occurring. This “wait until the dust settles” procrastination is the surest way of missing out on the largest, safest returns from stock investing. When the good news is obvious, prices are already up.

And now to that “cool” portfolio

If we are going to be optimistic, then we can focus on the companies that delight. These are the companies that have something special, unique and desirable to offer. Happily, they are obvious, so it is just a matter of having the confidence that their futures can be bright. To succeed, investors can focus on what they know and like, or they can use advisers or actively managed funds to perform the selection. (Personally, I prefer a combination of my own choices and funds managed by organizations in which I have confidence.)

Below are my five favorite “cool” companies. Their shared characteristics are leading developers of top end products and services that can support high pricing and profitability. In addition, the companies are well structured and managed to succeed in evolving growth areas.

1. Apple AAPL -6.22%
2. Goldman Sachs Group GS +0.65%
3. Starbucks SBUX -1.40%
4. Time Warner TWX -0.14%
5. Walt Disney DIS +0.37%

The bottom line

The current market environment has investors and advisers focusing on risk, uncertainties and low expectations. It is this caution that gives us the right and incentive to be optimistic and confident, buying leading companies for the brighter days ahead.

As Jim Cramer of CNBC's Mad Money always says: "There's always a bull market somewhere." In the spirit of that bullish way of viewing markets in both good and not-so-good times, here are 10 investment ideas that panelists from USA TODAY's 2016 Investment Roundtable say can help you build a winning portfolio in 2016.

1. FOCUS ON INDIVIDUAL STOCKS. If David Kostin of Goldman Sachs is right and the broad S&P 500 stock index posts flat returns next year, owning an index fund that tracks and mimics the performance of the large-company stock gauge may not be the most profitable strategy. To increase your odds of posting double-digit percentage gains next year, pinpoint individual names that have what it takes to outperform the S&P 500.

"Stock picking will become much more important," says Kostin, who favors growth stocks with strong balance sheets and companies that the bulk of their revenues domestically.

1. LOOK BEYOND FANTASTIC 'FANG' STOCKS: Tech stocks Facebook, Amazon, Netflix and Google got so hot, so hyped and so dominant that they earned the acronym "FANG" stocks. The big four also posted big gains this year — so sizable, in fact, that they were responsible for most, if not all, of the gains in the market-cap weighted Nasdaq composite. Next year, however, tech leadership is not likely to be as narrow, says Josh Spencer, manager of the T. Rowe Price Global Technology Fund.

"I think the tech market will broaden next year," he says, adding that tech names that will benefit from the cyclical uptick in the economy will get a fresh look from Wall Street. Examples include companies that make semiconductors and semiconductor equipment and which are breaking into new growth areas, such as high-tech gadgetry now found in the modern auto fleet.

1. REJECT USA BIAS AND GO GLOBAL. The U.S. stock market faces a host of headwinds — such as coming interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, a strong dollar and full valuations, to name a few — that could limit gains in 2016. Those domestic obstacles bolster the case for putting more cash to work in foreign stock markets, such as Europe and Japan where central bankers are more market-friendly and valuations are less pricey, says Russ Koesterich, global chief investment strategist at BlackRock.

"There are certain headwinds in the U.S. that are actually tailwinds in other parts of the world," Koesterich says. "In terms of valuations, I don't think we are in bubble territory, but U.S. valuations are a bit stretched. They are less stretched in Europe and Japan."

1. BENEFIT FROM "BIFURCATED" MARKET. Even if the broad U.S. stock market posts flat returns again in 2016, it's because the winners will be offset by the losers, says Kostin of Goldman Sachs. The key, therefore, is to zero in on stocks with three characteristics that will give them a better chance to climb up the performance charts.

First, "focus on companies with strong balance sheets, as they typically outperform in a rising interest rate environment," Kostin says. Second, "with the strong dollar weighing on foreign sales of large U.S. companies, invest in stocks that are generating revenue domestically, as compared to those that book sales via exporting." Lastly, go for growth stocks not value names. "When economic growth is tepid, that is when you want to own equity growth," he says.

1. CONTRARIAN PLAY: BUY BONDS. Sure the Fed is on track to start hiking interest rates for the first time in nearly 10 years. And there's no shortage of talk about the eventual bursting of the bond market bubble. Despite all the scary bond talk, Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones, says there's a still a place for bonds in every investor's portfolio.

"Nobody likes bonds, and people are saying, 'oh my gosh I will lose money in bonds,' " says Warne. But bond performance might not be so bad if the Fed moves slowly with its rate hikes and inflation remains low, she argues. Under that scenario, "bonds actually do OK," she explains. "If David Kostin is right and we get zero returns from stocks, you may do just as well in bonds and you have a lot less volatility then if you are fully invested in stocks. Bonds may not be a great investment, but they may actually not be too bad compared to everything else."